Thursday, March 21, 2013

Attention: Survivalists, Preppers, Zombie Killers, Separatists


From a good friend of mine, posted with permission:

Attention Survivalists, Preppers, Zombie Killers, Separatists, or whatever currently faddish group that you currently belong to, I have a few concerns about your methods.

Since I was a boy, I have been aware of a percentage of the American population that has been preparing for (fill in the blank here) to happen. While I applaud anyone that realizes the reality of certain scenarios playing out here on American soil, I have strong reservations regarding many of your methods.

Paramount to almost every preppers plan is to include the stockpiling of tens-of-thousands of rounds of ammunition. I will simply ask…why?

In America, the average number of rounds fired in a gunfight is between 2.1 and 3.7 (depending on the internet source that you chose to believe). Of course that is for a civilian "shootout" and usually between just two people. But…what about the Hollywood scenario of "you against the world" during an end-of-days battle between good and evil? How many rounds do you "need"?

Let start out with what professional warriors carry, in this case an average Army Infantry Squad.

Four M-4 carbines with 210 rounds (ea.) of 5.56.
Two M-203 Grenade Launchers with 210 rounds (ea.) of 5.56, and 84 rounds (ea.) of 40mm HE.
Two M-249 SAW's with 800-1000 rounds (ea.) of belted 5.56.
One M-14 (designated marksman rifle) with 40-80 rounds of 7.62.

Of course these numbers and weapon systems vary greatly depending on the unit in question, and the mission at hand. But we have to pick a starting point, so I chose this one. Deal with it.

I will assume that you do not have a belt-fed weapon, or grenade launcher, and that your personal weapon is something more like an AR-15. Assuming this, the professionals with the military equivalent of your weapon carry a basic load of 210 rounds. That’s 7, 30-round magazines.

The hit percentage of rounds fired vary greatly depending on the training of the individual and the given scenario, but the accepted "book" answer is that somewhere between 2 and 4% of all rounds fired in direct ground combat actually find a home in human flesh.

I will indulge you for a moment, and assume that you are a real-life Rambo, you are somehow more trained than any Green Beret, and that you are apparently bullet-proof. Let's say that your super-human hit percentage is a solid 10.

Assuming that you are carrying 210 rounds, this means that you can "expect" to hit 21 people with the ammunition that you are currently carrying. Okay, now for a little reality… those 21 people are most likely shooting back at you, and despite what Hollywood has led you to believe, they usually CAN shoot about as well as you (or at least to the more realistic 2-4% hit rate).

Ever thought about this? If it truly is "you against the world", those are some pretty crappy odds. I wouldn’t want to go up against them, and I guarantee you that I am a lot better trained than the average American sitting behind a computer (thank you US Taxpayers).

So, if you have 1000 rounds stockpiled, you are expecting to hit 100 people without getting a scratch.

If you have 10,000 rounds stockpiled, you are expecting to hit 1000 people without getting a scratch.

If you have 100,000 rounds stockpiled, you are expecting to hit 10,000 people without getting a scratch.

If you have 1,000,000 rounds stockpiled, you are expecting to hit 100,000 people without getting a scratch.

Umm…I hate to break it to you, but even Hollywood wouldn’t make a movie that was this unrealistic.

In October of 1993, two of the baddest men on this planet, with more training, motivation, and heart than God himself, were eventually killed by a pack of untrained, drug-crazed animals in a shit-hole called Mogadishu Somalia. Don’t for a damned second think that you are any better than those two men. Just don’t.

Believe me, there are much better ways to prepare for a bad scenario than stockpiling ammunition. Don’t get me wrong, I have plenty of it myself (because I like to shoot), but you need to truly understand that throwing money at a shelf full of ammunition does not somehow magically make you invincible.

Anyone with any military training knows that when outnumbered, your tactics change. You wouldn’t walk alone into a biker bar and set out to kick the entire places ass would you? Sound ridiculous? Well that’s exactly how I see you, as you stockpile yet another thousand rounds to collect dust in your basement. It is unrealistic, and only gives a false sense of security to the ignorant.

You want to survive an "end of days" scenario? Here's a tip, avoid direct contact at all costs with whatever enemy is hunting you. Stay away from places where you may be targeted, do not draw attention to yourself, and most importantly, you need to THINK. Think about what you really need. You need security, water, food, and possibly medical aid. That’s about it.

There are a million ways to obtain the above needs, and I will not bore you with my personal plan, other than that I would be hunting with a compound-bow instead of a firearm. (Remember the whole principal of not attracting attention.) I know this isn’t as glamorous as Rambo firing an M-60 from a helicopter, but hey, it’s a lot more realistic.

Now, with the above being said, would you whacko's please stop buying every damned box of ammo that is placed on a store shelf!? The rest of us normal people would like to buy a few boxes of ammo to actually use.

Thank you,

Jason S.

Mortal


1 comment:

Jeff Davis said...

I'll actually put my ego up, and say you are right. This makes complete perfect sense. of course the fad thing right now would be either the "financial fallout" or "zombie apocalypse" but it is more of a realistic view to keep low, stock food and security along with medical supplies and fend your own for a while instead of living day to day trying to kill anything or anyone that crosses you on your next loot. well put!